RESEARCH — "Trump 2026 midterms" — Edge: +28% — BUY YES @ $0.41 EDGE — "Fed cuts June" — Poly: $0.67 / Manifold: $0.74 — BUY YES HOLD — "BTC $100k EOY" — No edge detected — current price fair RESEARCH — "Ukraine ceasefire Q2" — Past accuracy: 71% on geo — BUY NO RESOLVED — "ECB holds March" — Correct ✓ — +$14.20 profit TRACK — Win rate: 78% — 18/23 predictions correct — calibration improving RESEARCH — "Trump 2026 midterms" — Edge: +28% — BUY YES @ $0.41 EDGE — "Fed cuts June" — Poly: $0.67 / Manifold: $0.74 — BUY YES HOLD — "BTC $100k EOY" — No edge detected — current price fair RESEARCH — "Ukraine ceasefire Q2" — Past accuracy: 71% on geo — BUY NO RESOLVED — "ECB holds March" — Correct ✓ — +$14.20 profit TRACK — Win rate: 78% — 18/23 predictions correct — calibration improving
Polymarket AI Research Agent — Now Live

Start Trading on Polymarket with AI. For free.

AI research, whale tracking & copy trading — all in one Telegram bot. Track up to 20 whale wallets free, get real-time alerts when they trade, and copy their moves with one tap. Spot the edge. Enter the trade. Profit.

78% Win Rate  •  <10s Analysis  •  20 Free Whale Wallets  •  Copy Trading  •  $0 to Start
78%
Prediction win rate
M+
Data points analyzed
<10s
Full research delivered
Traders who use it

Real results.
Real traders.

I thought AI prediction tools were all hype. Then Polytragent called 4 out of 5 markets correctly in my first week.

Marcus T.Crypto Trader — Austin TX

Wait, this is actually free? I was paying $39/mo for Polysight and getting less. 20 free wallets plus AI research — I switched in 5 minutes.

Jordan K.DeFi Analyst — Miami FL

I send a Polymarket link in Telegram, and 8 seconds later I have a full breakdown with edge scores. Used to spend 30 minutes researching each market manually.

Elena V.Part-time Trader — London UK

Polytragent spotted a 12% price divergence between Polymarket and Manifold that I never would have found on my own. Took the trade, banked $340.

Dev P.Software Engineer — San Francisco CA

Started free with 20 wallets. Hit my limit in 3 days. Upgraded to Degen Mode because at this point the $79 pays for itself in one good trade.

Ryan M.Full-time Polymarket Trader — NYC

No website to log into. No app to download. I just message a bot and get institutional-grade research. This is how every crypto tool should work.

Aisha N.Crypto Content Creator — Dubai UAE

I thought AI prediction tools were all hype. Then Polytragent called 4 out of 5 markets correctly in my first week.

Marcus T.Crypto Trader — Austin TX

Wait, this is actually free? I was paying $39/mo for Polysight and getting less. 20 free wallets plus AI research — I switched in 5 minutes.

Jordan K.DeFi Analyst — Miami FL

I send a Polymarket link in Telegram, and 8 seconds later I have a full breakdown with edge scores. Used to spend 30 minutes researching each market manually.

Elena V.Part-time Trader — London UK

Polytragent spotted a 12% price divergence between Polymarket and Manifold that I never would have found on my own. Took the trade, banked $340.

Dev P.Software Engineer — San Francisco CA

Started free with 20 wallets. Hit my limit in 3 days. Upgraded to Degen Mode because at this point the $79 pays for itself in one good trade.

Ryan M.Full-time Polymarket Trader — NYC

No website to log into. No app to download. I just message a bot and get institutional-grade research. This is how every crypto tool should work.

Aisha N.Crypto Content Creator — Dubai UAE

I've been tracking Polytragent's calls for 2 months. 78% hit rate is real — I've verified it against my own P&L. No other tool I've used comes close to being this transparent about accuracy.

Chris L.Quantitative Analyst — Chicago IL

I'm new to prediction markets and honestly had no idea where to start. Polytragent made it dead simple — just paste a link and it tells you what to do. My first month I'm up $180.

Sarah W.College Student — Toronto CA

Most people only look at the main market. Polytragent analyzes every single sub-market in an event — it found a mispriced sub-market on the Fed rate decision that nobody was talking about.

Alex K.Macro Trader — Singapore

What sold me is that it actually learns from its mistakes. I watched its crypto market accuracy go from 71% to 83% over 6 weeks as the calibration system kicked in. It literally gets smarter the more you use it.

Tom H.AI Researcher & Trader — Berlin DE

I thought AI prediction tools were all hype. Then Polytragent called 4 out of 5 markets correctly in my first week.

Marcus T.Crypto Trader — Austin TX

No website to log into. No app to download. I just message a bot and get institutional-grade research. This is how every crypto tool should work.

Aisha N.Crypto Content Creator — Dubai UAE

I've been tracking Polytragent's calls for 2 months. 78% hit rate is real — I've verified it against my own P&L. No other tool I've used comes close to being this transparent about accuracy.

Chris L.Quantitative Analyst — Chicago IL

I'm new to prediction markets and honestly had no idea where to start. Polytragent made it dead simple — just paste a link and it tells you what to do. My first month I'm up $180.

Sarah W.College Student — Toronto CA

Most people only look at the main market. Polytragent analyzes every single sub-market in an event — it found a mispriced sub-market on the Fed rate decision that nobody was talking about.

Alex K.Macro Trader — Singapore

What sold me is that it actually learns from its mistakes. I watched its crypto market accuracy go from 71% to 83% over 6 weeks as the calibration system kicked in. It literally gets smarter the more you use it.

Tom H.AI Researcher & Trader — Berlin DE

I thought AI prediction tools were all hype. Then Polytragent called 4 out of 5 markets correctly in my first week.

Marcus T.Crypto Trader — Austin TX

No website to log into. No app to download. I just message a bot and get institutional-grade research. This is how every crypto tool should work.

Aisha N.Crypto Content Creator — Dubai UAE
01 — The problem

You're researching
with Google
in a market run
by algorithms.

Polymarket moves fast. Events spawn dozens of sub-markets. Prices shift on news you haven't read yet. By the time you finish your research, the edge is gone. You need an AI that does the work in seconds — not hours.

Events have 10–50 sub-markets you'll never manually check

Each event on Polymarket can have dozens of date-specific or outcome-specific sub-markets. Most traders only look at the top one and miss the real edge buried in expired contracts and price divergences.

No cross-platform comparison means you're trading blind

Manifold Markets, Metaculus, and other forecasters often price the same events differently. Without cross-referencing, you can't tell if Polymarket's price is the opportunity — or the trap.

You don't track your own accuracy — so you repeat mistakes

Professional forecasters obsessively track calibration. Most Polymarket traders have no idea if they're actually good at predicting politics, crypto, or geopolitics. They keep losing on the same topics.

polytragent — research.log
78%
Prediction
win rate
M+
Data points per
research query
<10s
Full analysis
delivered
24/7
Background
resolution tracking
polytragent — analysis.log
02 — The solution

One command.
Full research.
Edge found.

Type /research with any Polymarket event URL. Polytragent parses every sub-market, cross-references forecasters, checks its own track record, and delivers an AI-powered edge analysis — with BUY YES, BUY NO, or HOLD for every market. In seconds.

01

Full Event Parsing

Extracts every sub-market from the event — active, expired, and resolved. Expired markets give context. Active markets get priced. Nothing gets missed.

02

Cross-Platform Intelligence

Searches Manifold Markets for matching predictions. Compares prices across platforms. When Polymarket says 40% and Manifold says 68%, that's your edge.

03

Self-Improving AI Analysis

Claude AI synthesizes everything — sub-markets, forecasters, and your full prediction history. It knows where it's been wrong before and corrects calibration biases automatically.

04

Prediction Logging & Resolution

Every prediction is logged with market price, forecast %, confidence, and reasoning. A background resolver checks outcomes every 6 hours. The system gets smarter with every trade.

03 — Intelligence

Millions of data points.
One research engine.

Every Polymarket sub-market, every Manifold forecast, every past prediction you've made, every news signal — aggregated, cross-referenced, and scored by AI in under 10 seconds.

8-STEP PIPELINE · MILLIONS OF DATA POINTS · SELF-IMPROVING AI
PARSE URL
extract slug
FETCH MARKETS
gamma API
CROSS-REF
manifold
TRACK RECORD
past accuracy
AI ANALYSIS
claude sonnet
LOG & RESOLVE
every 6h
◈ Step 1
Parse URL
Extracts slug from Polymarket link. Detects /event/ URLs (multiple sub-markets) vs single market URLs and routes accordingly.
◈ Step 2
Fetch Sub-Markets
Hits Gamma API for every sub-market — including expired/resolved ones. Parses YES/NO prices, volume, liquidity, days left.
◈ Step 3
Search Forecasters
Cross-references Manifold Markets for matching binary markets. Grabs top 3-5 by liquidity for price comparison.
◈ Step 4
Past Track Record
Checks prediction_store for related past predictions. Reports correct vs wrong, with specific examples and topic-level accuracy.
◈ Step 5
AI Analysis
Claude Sonnet synthesizes everything — sub-markets, Manifold data, full accuracy history, calibration biases — into edge-scored recommendations.
◈ Step 6
Log Predictions
Every active sub-market logged to predictions.json with AI forecast %, recommendation (BUY_YES/BUY_NO/HOLD), confidence, and reasoning.
◈ Step 7
Build Output
Formats everything for Telegram: active markets with edge indicators, expired context, Manifold comparison, AI analysis, and direct trade links.
◈ Step 8
Background Resolve
Every 6 hours, checks Polymarket API for resolved markets. Records outcomes, calculates hypothetical P&L. Feeds back into future research.
04 — Research output

See every edge.
Scored and ranked.
In real time.

Every research query shows you exactly where the edge is — price vs forecast, Manifold divergence, confidence level, and a clear BUY YES / BUY NO / HOLD for every sub-market. All delivered straight to Telegram.

Edge Detection
Price vs AI forecast divergence
research_engine.py
Manifold Bridge
Cross-platform price comparison
manifold_api.py
Prediction Store
Accuracy tracking & resolution
prediction_store.py
Telegram Output
Formatted research delivery
telegram_client.py
Research results — edge scores
LIVE
MARKETPRICEAI EST.EDGE
polytragent — output.log
05 — How it works

One command.
Instant research.
That simple.

No setup. No APIs to configure. Just open Telegram, send a Polymarket link, and get AI-powered research in seconds. The agent does the rest.

01

Open Telegram → Send /research

Paste any Polymarket event URL. The agent detects whether it's a multi-market event or single market and routes automatically. Works with any active Polymarket link.

02

AI analyzes everything in <10 seconds

Sub-markets fetched, forecasters cross-referenced, your track record checked, Claude AI analysis generated. Millions of data points synthesized into clear recommendations.

03

Get edge scores + direct trade links

Each sub-market gets a BUY YES, BUY NO, or HOLD recommendation with confidence level and reasoning. Click the trade link to execute on Polymarket instantly.

polytragent — research.log
06 — Pricing

Start free.
Go Degen.

Trade for free with 5 daily researches & 20 whale wallets. Go Degen for unlimited everything + auto-trading.

Free
Starter
$0
forever · no credit card
5 researches/day · 20 wallets · notifications Start Trading for Free →
  • 5 event researches per day
  • Track up to 20 whale wallets
  • Real-time trade notifications
  • One-tap manual copy trading
  • AI edge scores
  • Telegram delivery
  • Unlimited research
  • Unlimited wallets
  • Auto-execute copy trades
Profit Calculator

Calculate your
prediction market profits

Enter your trade parameters. See potential profit, ROI, and break-even — then compare returns with and without Polytragent's AI edge detection.

Trade Parameters
Investment Amount
$500
$10$10,000
Buy Price (share cost)
$0.45
$0.01$0.99
Estimated Win Probability
65%
1%99%
Position
Trades per Month
20
1100
Polytragent Advantage
AI Edge Boost (accuracy improvement)
+12%
+0%+30%

Based on Polytragent's 78% win rate vs average ~55% baseline.

Results — Single Trade
Potential Profit
+$611.11
ROI: +122.2%
Shares Bought
1,111
at $0.45 each
Payout if Win
$1,111.11
shares resolve to $1.00
Break-Even Prob.
45.0%
minimum to be +EV
Expected Value
+$222.22
probability-weighted
Monthly Projection
MetricWithout AIWith Polytragent
Win Rate65%77%
Winning Trades1315
Monthly Profit+$1,500+$3,540
Monthly ROI+15.0%+35.4%
Extra Profit from AI+$2,040

See those numbers in action — Polytragent finds this edge on every trade, automatically.

Start with Polytragent → Full calculator page
07 — FAQ

Common
questions.

Everything you need to know before running your first /research command.

What exactly does Polytragent do?
Polytragent is an AI research agent for Polymarket. You send it a Polymarket event URL via Telegram, and it instantly analyzes every sub-market, cross-references forecaster platforms like Manifold Markets, reviews its own past prediction accuracy, and delivers AI-powered edge recommendations — BUY YES, BUY NO, or HOLD — with confidence levels and reasoning. It's like having a team of analysts in your pocket.
How many data points does it actually analyze?
Millions. Every sub-market in the event (including expired ones for context), all matching Manifold Markets predictions, the full prediction history database with win/loss tracking, news velocity signals, and on-chain data. All of this is synthesized by Claude AI in under 10 seconds.
Does it learn from its mistakes?
Yes — this is the core advantage. Every prediction is logged with the market price, AI forecast percentage, confidence level, and reasoning. A background resolver runs every 6 hours checking for outcomes. The AI sees its full track record — win rate, calibration biases, strong/weak topics, recent performance — and adjusts future predictions accordingly.
Does Polytragent execute trades for me?
Polytragent is a research agent — it tells you what to buy, not buys for you. Each recommendation comes with a direct trade link to Polymarket so you can execute with one click. You stay in control of every trade.
What platforms does it cross-reference?
Currently Manifold Markets is the primary cross-reference source for forecaster comparison. The agent searches by event title, finds matching binary markets, and compares prices. When Polymarket and Manifold disagree significantly, that's where edge lives.
How do I use it?
Open Telegram, send /research followed by any Polymarket event URL. That's it. The agent handles everything — URL parsing, sub-market fetching, forecaster comparison, track record analysis, AI synthesis — and delivers the results right in your Telegram chat.
Get started

Stop guessing.
Start copy trading
whales with AI.

Track whale wallets, get instant trade alerts, and copy their moves — all free. No setup required, just open Telegram.

Start Trading for Free →
20 Free Wallets Real-time Alerts Copy Trading

Risk Disclaimer: Prediction market trading involves significant financial risk. AI-powered research does not guarantee profits. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Polytragent is a research tool, not a financial advisor. Only trade capital you can afford to lose. This website does not constitute financial advice.