Polymarket Profit Calculator

Calculate your
prediction market profits

Enter your trade parameters below. See potential profit, ROI, and break-even probability — then compare returns with and without Polytragent's AI edge detection.

Investment Amount
$500
$10$10,000
Buy Price (share cost)
$0.45
$0.01$0.99
Your Estimated Win Probability
65%
1%99%
Position
Number of Trades (monthly)
20
1100
AI Edge Boost (accuracy improvement)
+12%
+0%+30%

Based on Polytragent's 78% win rate vs the average trader's ~55% baseline accuracy on prediction markets.

Potential Profit
+$611.11
ROI: +122.2%
Shares Bought
1,111
at $0.45 each
Payout if Win
$1,111.11
shares resolve to $1.00
Break-Even Prob.
45.0%
minimum to be +EV
Expected Value
+$222.22
probability-weighted
Monthly Projection
Metric Without AI With Polytragent
Win Rate 65% 77%
Winning Trades 13 15
Monthly Profit +$1,500 +$3,540
Monthly ROI +15.0% +35.4%
Extra Profit from AI +$2,040
trade_analysis.log
INITLoading trade parameters...
CALCInvestment: $500 → 1,111 shares @ $0.45
EDGEBreak-even: 45.0% | Your estimate: 65% → +20.0% edge
PROBExpected value: +$222.22 per trade
AIPolytragent boost: +12% accuracy → win rate 77%
PROJMonthly (20 trades): +$3,540 with AI vs +$1,500 baseline
RECSignal: STRONG BUY — significant edge detected ✓

How Polymarket
profit works

Polymarket uses binary outcome shares. Buy low, sell high — or hold until resolution. Every share resolves to $1.00 or $0.00. Your edge is the gap between price and true probability.

01

Buy shares at market price

YES shares cost $0.01–$0.99. The price reflects the market's implied probability. A $0.40 YES share means the market thinks there's a 40% chance.

02

Find edge with Polytragent

Our AI analyzes millions of data points, cross-references forecasters, and detects mispriced markets. If the true probability is higher than the price — that's edge.

03

Profit on resolution

If your shares resolve YES, each pays $1.00. Bought at $0.45? That's $0.55 profit per share — a 122% ROI. The bigger the edge, the bigger the expected value.

04

Compound your edge

Consistent small edges compound. 20 trades per month at 78% accuracy scales to thousands in monthly profit. That's the Polytragent advantage.

Stop guessing. Start researching.

Polytragent analyzes every Polymarket sub-market in seconds. Find the edge the calculator just showed you — on every single trade.

Risk Disclaimer: Prediction market trading involves significant financial risk. AI-powered research does not guarantee profits. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Polytragent is a research tool, not a financial advisor. Only trade capital you can afford to lose. This calculator provides estimates only and does not constitute financial advice.