Research news, data, and trends to identify which outcomes are likely. Combine with market prices to find edge. The foundation of all prediction market trading.
Track relevant stories and announcements
Use public datasets to estimate true probability
Rate your confidence (1-10) in each analysis
Find pairs of correlated markets that are mispriced relative to each other. Exploit the spread while hedging directional risk.
Find two markets that should move together but don't
Long underpriced + short overpriced = delta-neutral
Profit regardless of market direction
Aggregate predictions from experienced forecasters across platforms. The wisdom of crowds often beats individual prices.
Monitor best 100+ forecasters across all platforms
Rate forecaster accuracy (Brier score, accuracy)
Combine forecasts weighted by track record
Use machine learning to find edges faster than humans. Scan thousands of markets and identify pricing anomalies in seconds.
Ensemble of 5 ML models agree on forecast
Analyze 2000+ markets in 60 seconds
Rate edge confidence (1-10) from model agreement
Don't put all capital in one trade. Build a balanced portfolio across uncorrelated markets to maximize risk-adjusted returns.
Ensure portfolio is < 0.4 avg correlation
Auto-rebalance weekly to maintain target allocation
Size each position by Kelly Criterion formula
Polytragent automates all 7 strategies and more. From fundamental analysis to AI edge detection to portfolio construction — everything you need to win.
Start with Polytragent →Risk Disclaimer: Prediction market trading involves significant financial risk. AI-powered research does not guarantee profits. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Polytragent is a research tool, not a financial advisor. Only trade capital you can afford to lose.