Polymarket is not the only prediction market. Manifold Markets often prices the same binary events. When Polymarket says 40% and Manifold says 68%, that's not a coincidence—it's an arbitrage opportunity. Polytragent searches both platforms automatically and calculates the divergence.
Polytragent strips date suffixes from the event title ("Trump 2026 Midterms" becomes the search query) and finds matching binary markets on Manifold. The top 3–5 by liquidity are selected.
For each matched market, the algorithm calculates: (Manifold Price - Polymarket Price) / Polymarket Price. When the result is 28%, that's your edge—and your recommendation signal.
Metaculus and Swift Centre are historically accurate but no longer actively trading. Only active platforms (Polymarket and Manifold) are used. Dead markets don't inform live decisions.
For every Polymarket event, Polytragent automatically queries Manifold Markets. The search is fuzzy—it handles date changes, synonym variation, and formatting differences. Once matching markets are found, prices are compared. A 15% divergence is small. A 28% divergence is actionable. The recommendation flows from the math.
From the Polymarket event slug, Polytragent infers the event title. "trump-2026-midterms" becomes "Trump 2026 Midterms".
Query /markets?search=TITLE. Get back matching markets, ranked by liquidity and creation date.
Exclude resolved and expired markets. Select the top 3–5 by trading volume. Liquidity matters.
From each platform, extract the current probability (price) for YES. Polymarket and Manifold both use 0–1 scales.
(Manifold - Poly) / Poly × 100 = divergence %. Store the result with timestamp and market IDs.
Divergence > 10% = actionable edge. If Manifold > Poly: BUY YES on Poly. If Poly > Manifold: BUY NO on Poly.
Store the comparison (Poly price, Manifold price, divergence %) in predictions.json. Report to Telegram immediately.
Polytragent scans every major event for price divergences. Get alerts when edges appear.
Start trading smarter — $79.99/mo →Risk Disclaimer: Prediction market trading involves significant financial risk. AI-powered research does not guarantee profits. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Polytragent is a research tool, not a financial advisor. Only trade capital you can afford to lose. This website does not constitute financial advice.